This year, the El Nino cycle is in a neutral state, which neither suppresses nor enhances storm activity. The Atlantic has been in a “high-activity era” since 1995, Dr. El Niño tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic La Niña promotes storm activity there. Those include a decades-long cycle of rising and falling sea-surface temperatures known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, and the phenomenon of El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific. Bell of NOAA said in Thursday’s call, other factors have, at least so far, had a far greater effect on hurricane strength in the North Atlantic than climate change.
Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center, said in a statement, “If we want to keep these dangerous patterns from accelerating, we need urgent action by government and private sector leaders to shift us away from fossil fuels and toward clean energy.” This makes intuitive sense, and is expected to grow worse over time, because warmer ocean water tends to strengthens storms. There is also an enhanced west African monsoon.Ī study published on Monday suggested that climate change has been making hurricanes around the world stronger over the past four decades. Gaynor, the FEMA administrator, in a call with reporters this month.įactors contributing to this year’s prediction of above-normal activity include warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, along with reduced vertical wind shear, which can keep storms from forming or from becoming stronger. “We have not taken our eye off the ball about handling other disasters,” said Peter T. Just 38 percent of FEMA staff members were available to be deployed to a disaster zone for some of the agency’s specialized staff, such as field leaders and safety experts, less than one-quarter were available. The coronavirus has also put new strain on FEMA, which as of Thursday was managing 103 major disasters around the country, according to agency records. The American Red Cross, which manages most of the country’s shelters, is “prioritizing individual hotel rooms over congregate shelters,” according to Stephanie Rendon, a spokeswoman for the organization.īut she said individual rooms might not be an option in large-scale disasters like hurricanes, so the Red Cross would instead rely on “additional safety precautions” for group shelters, such as health screenings, masks, additional space between cots and extra cleaning and disinfecting. In previous storm seasons, local officials and nonprofit groups have relied on what they call congregate shelters - rows of cots in high school gymnasiums, church basements or other crowded spaces.
WEATHER FORECAST HURRICANE SCHWARTZ HOW TO
One of the challenges facing disaster officials is how to protect people forced to leave their homes without exposing them to the coronavirus.
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